| Macro Dashboard |
| Output |
FRED Ticker |
Latest Period |
Units |
Freq |
Present |
Lag 1 |
Lag 2 |
Lag 3 |
Lag 4 |
|
Labor |
FRED Ticker |
Latest Period |
Units |
Freq |
Present |
Lag 1 |
Lag 2 |
Lag 3 |
Lag 4 |
| RGDP |
GDPC1 |
2026-01-01 |
Trln $ |
Q |
24,153 |
24,056 |
24,027 |
23,771 |
23,548 |
|
NFP, Total NonFarm |
PAYEMS |
2026-04-01 |
M/M Delta (Thousands) |
M |
115 |
185 |
-156 |
160 |
-17 |
|
GDPC1 |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
0.4% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
|
|
PAYEMS |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| NGDP |
NGDPSAXDCUSQ |
2026-01-01 |
Trln $ |
Q |
7,964,064 |
7,855,632 |
7,774,507 |
7,621,432 |
7,510,528 |
|
ADP, Total NonFarm Private |
ADPMNUSNERSA |
2026-04-01 |
M/M Delta (Thousands) |
M |
109,000 |
61,000 |
66,000 |
11,000 |
37,000 |
|
NGDPSAXDCUSQ |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
1.4% |
1.0% |
2.0% |
1.5% |
0.7% |
|
UR |
UNRATE |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
| GDP Nowcast |
GDPNOW |
2026-04-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
3% |
1% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
|
U-6 |
U6RATE |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
8.2 |
8 |
7.9 |
8.1 |
8.4 |
| Smoothed Recession Prob |
RECPROUSM156N |
2026-04-01 |
% (5=5%) |
M |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
LFPR |
CIVPART |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
61.8 |
61.9 |
62 |
62.1 |
62.4 |
| RPCE |
PCECC96 |
ERR: "Ticker 'PCECC96' not found in values file." |
Trln $ |
Q |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
EPop |
EMRATIO |
ERR: "Ticker 'EMRATIO' not found in values file." |
% |
M |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
PCECC96 |
ERR: "Ticker 'PCECC96' not found in values file." |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
JOLTS Openings Rate |
JTSJOR |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
4.6 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4 |
| RPCE Dur |
PCEDGC96 |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
-0.6% |
1.3% |
2.0% |
-1.5% |
-0.6% |
|
JOLTS Hires Rate |
JTSHIR |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
|
PCEDGC96 |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
2.7% |
0.8% |
-2.3% |
|
JOLTS Separations Rate |
JTSTSR |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
| RPCE Ndur |
PCENDC96 |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.2% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
UI Initial Claims |
ICSA |
ERR: "Ticker 'ICSA' not found in values file." |
# People |
W |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
PCENDC96 |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
1.9% |
1.7% |
1.6% |
1.9% |
1.4% |
|
UI Continuing Claims |
CCSA |
2026-05-11 |
# People |
W |
1,786,000 |
1,771,000 |
1,776,000 |
1,758,000 |
1,776,000 |
| RPCE Serv. |
PCESC96 |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Avg Weekly Hours |
AWHAETP |
2026-04-01 |
Hrs |
M |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
|
PCESC96 |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
2.5% |
2.6% |
2.9% |
2.5% |
2.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Retail Sales |
RSAFS |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.5% |
1.6% |
0.9% |
-0.0% |
-0.0% |
|
Prices |
FRED Ticker |
Latest Date |
Units |
Freq |
Present |
Lag 1 |
Lag 2 |
Lag 3 |
Lag 4 |
|
RSAFS |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
4.9% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
3.3% |
2.4% |
|
CPI |
CPIAUCSL |
ERR: "Ticker 'CPIAUCSL' not found in values file." |
M/M % Delta |
M |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Real Disposable Personal Income |
DSPIC96 |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
-0.5% |
0.6% |
-0.1% |
|
|
CPIAUCSL |
ERR: "Ticker 'CPIAUCSL' not found in values file." |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
DSPIC96 |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-1.1% |
-0.1% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
0.8% |
|
Core CPI |
CPILFESL |
ERR: "Ticker 'CPILFESL' not found in values file." |
M/M % Delta |
M |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Personal Saving Rate |
PSAVERT |
2026-04-01 |
%, SAAR |
M |
2.6 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
|
|
CPILFESL |
ERR: "Ticker 'CPILFESL' not found in values file." |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Vehicle Sales |
TOTALSA |
2026-04-01 |
Mln Units |
M |
16 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
|
PPI-FD |
PPIFIS |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
1.4% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
|
TOTALSA |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-7.2% |
-9.9% |
-3.3% |
-6.0% |
-5.2% |
|
|
PPIFIS |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
6.0% |
4.3% |
3.4% |
3.0% |
3.1% |
| Cons Credit - Revolving |
REVOLSL |
2026-03-01 |
M/M % Delta SAAR |
M |
0.8% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
-0.1% |
|
PCE Deflator |
PCEPI |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.4% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
| Cons Credit - NonRevolving |
NONREVSL |
2026-03-01 |
M/M % Delta SAAR |
M |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
PCEPI |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
3.8% |
3.5% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
| Gross Priv Fixed Inv Non Res |
PNFIC1 |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
2.4% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
1.8% |
2.3% |
|
Core PCE Deflator |
PCEPILFE |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
| Gross Priv Fixed Inv Res |
PRFIC1 |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
-1.6% |
-0.4% |
-1.8% |
-1.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
PCEPILFE |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
3.3% |
3.2% |
3.0% |
3.1% |
3.0% |
| Dur. Order |
DGORDER |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
7.9% |
1.3% |
-1.2% |
-0.4% |
-0.9% |
|
Mich NTM Inflation Exp |
MICH |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
4.7 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
4 |
4.2 |
|
DGORDER |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
17.2% |
1.4% |
7.6% |
9.9% |
10.6% |
|
5yr, 5yr Forward |
T5YIFR |
2026-06-01 |
%, NSA |
D |
2.26 |
2.24 |
2.24 |
2.25 |
2.27 |
| Dur Orders Non Def x Aicraft |
ADXDNO |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
8.1% |
-0.3% |
-1.2% |
0.2% |
-1.9% |
|
10yr TIPS |
T10YIE |
2026-06-01 |
%, NSA |
D |
2.4 |
2.38 |
2.39 |
2.39 |
2.4 |
|
ADXDNO |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
14.9% |
-1.8% |
7.3% |
9.3% |
10.1% |
|
ECI |
ECIWAG |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta |
Q |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
| IP |
INDPRO |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.7% |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
-0.0% |
0.5% |
|
|
ECIWAG |
2026-01-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
Q |
3.3% |
3.4% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
3.4% |
|
INDPRO |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
1.4% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
1.4% |
1.2% |
|
Avg Hrly Earnings |
CES0500000003 |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
| Cap Util |
TCU |
2026-04-01 |
% |
M |
76 |
76 |
76 |
76 |
76 |
|
|
RCES0500000003* |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
| Productivity |
PRS85006092 |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
1% |
2% |
5% |
4% |
-1% |
|
Real Avg. Hourly Earnings |
RCES0500000003* |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
-0.2% |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
| Hou. Starts |
HOUST |
2026-04-01 |
SAAR (Thousands) |
M |
1,465 |
1,507 |
1,346 |
1,385 |
1,378 |
|
|
RCES0500000003* |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-0.2% |
-0.1% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
HOUST |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
4.6% |
12.0% |
-9.7% |
2.4% |
-7.8% |
|
Case Shiller HPI |
CSUSHPINSA |
2026-03-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
0.7% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
| Housing Permits |
PERMIT |
2026-04-01 |
SAAR (Thousands) |
M |
1,423 |
1,363 |
1,540 |
1,393 |
1,482 |
|
|
CSUSHPINSA |
2026-03-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.9% |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
PERMIT |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-1.5% |
-8.6% |
6.5% |
-4.8% |
1.0% |
|
Nominal Broad US Dollar Index |
TWEXBGSMTH |
2026-05-01 |
Index Jan2006=100 |
M |
118.8 |
119 |
119.9 |
117.9 |
119.2 |
| New Home Sales |
HSN1F |
2026-04-01 |
SAAR (Thousands) |
M |
622 |
663 |
641 |
576 |
723 |
|
|
TWEXBGSMTH |
2026-05-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-2.9% |
-4.1% |
-5.0% |
-7.8% |
-7.5% |
|
HSN1F |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
-11.3% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
-13.4% |
3.0% |
|
Export Prices |
IQ |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
3.3% |
1.5% |
1.9% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
| Existing Home Sales |
EXHOSLUSM495S |
2026-04-01 |
SAAR (Thousands) |
M |
4,020 |
4,010 |
4,130 |
4,020 |
4,270 |
|
|
IQ |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
8.8% |
5.4% |
3.8% |
2.5% |
3.4% |
|
EXHOSLUSM495S |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Import Prices |
IR |
2026-04-01 |
M/M % Delta |
M |
1.9% |
0.9% |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
| Gov. Cons |
GCE |
2026-01-01 |
Trln $ |
Q |
5,416 |
5,344 |
5,324 |
5,237 |
5,196 |
|
|
IR |
2026-04-01 |
Y/Y % Delta |
M |
4.2% |
2.3% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
GCE |
2026-01-01 |
Q/Q % Delta SAAR |
Q |
1.4% |
0.4% |
1.7% |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
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| X |
BOPTEXP |
ERR: "Ticker 'BOPTEXP' not found in values file." |
Bln $ |
M |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Rates |
FRED Ticker |
Latest Date |
Units |
Freq |
Present |
Lag 1 |
Lag 2 |
Lag 3 |
Lag 4 |
|
BOPTEXP |
ERR: "Ticker 'BOPTEXP' not found in values file." |
M/M % Delta SA |
M |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
FFR |
DFF |
2026-05-29 |
%, NSA |
D |
3.62 |
3.62 |
3.62 |
3.62 |
3.62 |
| M |
BOPTIMP |
ERR: "Ticker 'BOPTIMP' not found in values file." |
Bln $ |
M |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
2y UST |
DGS2 |
2026-05-29 |
%, NSA |
D |
3.98 |
3.99 |
4 |
4.01 |
4.13 |
|
BOPTIMP |
ERR: "Ticker 'BOPTIMP' not found in values file." |
M/M % Delta SA |
M |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
|
5y UST |
DGS5 |
2026-05-29 |
%, NSA |
D |
4.13 |
4.15 |
4.17 |
4.19 |
4.27 |
| Trade Balance |
BOPSTB |
2026-03-01 |
Bln $ |
M |
28,406 |
26,846 |
27,460 |
26,347 |
27,608 |
|
10y UST |
DGS10 |
2026-05-29 |
%, NSA |
D |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.48 |
4.5 |
4.56 |
|
BOPSTB |
2026-03-01 |
M/M % Delta SA |
M |
5.8% |
-2.2% |
4.2% |
-4.6% |
0.5% |
|
30y Mtg. |
MORTGAGE30US |
2026-05-25 |
%, NSA |
W |
6.53 |
6.51 |
6.36 |
6.37 |
6.3 |
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BAA |
DBAA |
2026-05-29 |
%, NSA |
D |
6.02 |
6.02 |
6.05 |
6.06 |
6.13 |
| Footnote: All data is Seasonally Adjusted unless otherwise indicated by NSA |
*FRED doesn't include real avg. hourly earning data. Calculated through chained PCE deflator (FRED ticker: PCEPI). Ticker "RCES0500000003" is only for reference in the raw data table |
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| Source: All data collected via FRED from the St. Louis Fed |
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| Mike Aguilar | mike.aguilar@duke.edu | www.market-observatory.com |
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